Using hypotheses in family history can give you a goal to pursue in your research and help make your family history more accurate.
What is a hypothesis?
A hypothesis is a proposition or proposed explanation based on limited information, that requires further evidence. You test a hypothesis by systematically gathering more evidence and analysing whether that evidence supports or refutes the hypothesis. Using hypotheses in your research helps you reach conclusions that are reasonable and defensible.
There are two main types of hypotheses in family history:
- conclusions that have been reached without sufficient evidence, such as those without any source citations and those where the sources cited are insufficient, and
- draft conclusions that attempt to explain what may have occurred.
Why are hypotheses useful in family history?
Hypotheses provide a starting point for your research. A clear proposition can be easier to research than an open research question, because it provides a focus. Working your way through a series of hypotheses provides you with a systematic process and reduces the risk of getting side-tracked or lost in your research.
Viewing unsubstantiated conclusions as hypotheses reinforces the need for sufficient evidence to make conclusions reasonable and defensible. It highlights where more research is required.
Unlike science, history cannot be observed because events happened in the past and cannot be recreated. It is therefore important to investigate alternative explanations to increase the probability that your conclusions are accurate. Creating hypotheses helps with this process.
How to construct a hypothesis in family history
Approach the task of constructing hypotheses in a systematic manner.
You should first concentrate on using hypotheses to test whether your family tree has a solid foundation. You need to ensure that the core of your tree is correct before you move on to new research. Start with yourself and work back along your direct line, using my Tree Health Assessment Tool. Or, if you are working on a specific project, focus on the line between you and your person of interest.
Once you have confirmed your solid foundation, you can start using hypotheses to progress your research by filling gaps and enriching your family history with further details.
Conclusions with no source citations
Identify any statements or conclusions in your family history that have no source citations. A statement without source citations can be treated as a hypothesis. It may be correct, but there is no way to judge that without further research.
Example:
I have no source citations for information about my 5x great grandfather, William Bull. I have identified him from the baptismal record of his daughter but have not yet researched his life. As I have just one citation supporting his identity and none for other information about him, I should create a series of hypotheses and test them in a logical sequence.
Hypothesis 1: William Bull was the father of my 4x great grandmother, Penelope Bull, who was baptised in 1789 in Buckingham, England.
Hypothesis 2: William Bull married Mary, the mother of Penelope, before 1789 in Buckingham, England.
Hypothesis 3a:Â My 5x great grandfather, William Bull died in Buckingham, England in 1825.
Hypothesis 3b: My 5x great grandfather, William Bull died after 1789, perhaps in Buckingham, England.
Hypothesis 4: My 5x great grandfather, William Bull, was born about 1750-1770, perhaps in Buckingham, England.
You can see from this example that alternative hypotheses may be generated as more information and evidence is gathered, and that some hypotheses cannot be reliably investigated until others are resolved.
Conclusions with insufficient evidence
Conclusions with insufficient evidence may include conclusions based on:
- just one source
- one or more sources with indirect or circumstantial evidence
- information that is unclear, questionable or inconsistent
- gaps where you have no conclusion or you have some ideas to explore.
It is a good idea to include a summary of, or reference to, the evidence on which these types of hypotheses are based. This makes them easier to investigate.
For conclusions with insufficient evidence, it is a good idea to examine alternative hypotheses or more open ones to help avoid confirmation bias. This could involve researching a range of dates, rather than just one year, or a range of locations rather than a specific place.
Example of one source:
Hypothesis: My 3x great grandfather, Samuel Bassett, was born before 1 March 1812 in Timsbury, Somerset, England. Source: Ancestry.com, Somerset, England, Church of England Baptisms Marriages and Burials, 1532-1812, baptism of Samuel Bassett; citing Somerset Heritage Service; Taunton, Somerset, England; Reference Number: D\P\tims/2/1/4.
Example of indirect or circumstantial evidence:
Hypothesis: My 3x great grandfather, Samuel Bassett, arrived in Australia about 1834. Source: NSW Registry Births Deaths and Marriages, death certificate, Samuel Bassett 1894/6112, ‘Time in Colony: 60 Years.’
Example of information that is questionable or inconsistent:
Observation: The mother of my 3x great grandfather Joseph Brissett, is often recorded as Mary Poole Scarlett from Cornwall, Jamaica. However, her cousin was also called Mary Scarlett and was born six months earlier in the same location. Compensation sought from the British Government after the abolishment of slavery in Jamaica links the second Mary to Joseph.
Hypothesis: The mother of my 3x great grandfather Joseph Brissett was not Mary Poole Scarlett born 1801, but her cousin Mary Scarlett born 1800.
Example of a hypothesis for a research gap:
Research gaps are usually expressed as a question, but they can be converted into a hypothesis based on available information.
Question: When was my 2x great grandfather George Bassett born?
Hypothesis: My 2x great grandfather George Bassett was born between 1853 and 1860 in or near Mudgee, New South Wales. Reasons: Father, Samuel Bassett’s death certificate lists children in order of birth, with older sister Annie born 1853 and younger brother John born in 1860. Older brother Samuel born in Guntawang near Mudgee in 1852.
Conclusion to explain what may have occurred
Analysis of available evidence can help you construct hypotheses to explain what you observe. This is strategy that is commonly used in DNA research, but it can be applied in other circumstances too.
Observation: Christina Malchow was my mother’s great grandmother. My mother and I have no identifiable DNA matches who can be attributed to the line of the man reported to be Christina Malchow’s father, Gottlieb Malchow. We have multiple DNA matches with people descended from Edward Webb, who lived in the same area at the time Christina was born. These matches also match other descendants of Christina.
Hypothesis: Edward Webb was the biological father of my 2x great grandmother Christina Malchow.
Add your hypotheses to your research plan
Hypotheses can be added to your research plan just like you would add a research question. Then identify and list tasks that need to be undertaken to gather the evidence.
To identify appropriate tasks, ask yourself these questions:
- What would I expect to see in the sources if this hypothesis was correct?
- What might I expect to see in the sources if the hypothesis is not correct?
- Which sources will provide the best evidence to support or refute this hypothesis?
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